January 18, 2022

How to build trust in an uncertain world: digital twins and beyond

In their recent seminal work “Radical Uncertainty”, former Bank of England Governor Lord (Mervyn) King and Oxford academic John Kay argue that despite the power of probability theory, simple percentages cannot predict what we really need to know about critical events like the Global Financial Crisis or (they were prescient) pandemics. They argue that a more sophisticated understanding of what leads to “radical uncertainty” is needed. We still need granularity, but we also need to grasp the big picture. The question we should ask, they say, is “what is going on here?”, in the real world, not just in the world of numerical probabilities.